We often hear the saying that beginners tend to have good luck in things, especially in gambling. This phenomenon is known as beginner's luck.
This always struck me as rather ridiculous; if anything one would expect beginners to do worse. If beginners really had better luck, why not just follow them around in a casino and bet on whatever they bet on? Obviously this claim is not scientific.
However after some consideration, I have hit on a possible explanation for the claim of beginner's luck.
Statistically speaking, half of the beginners who start a luck-based game will have better luck than average, while half will have worse luck than average. More of those who experience above-average luck will elect to continue playing the game, as they have had a lovely time at the start, while those who started with bad luck will have a greater tendency to drop out.
Over time, this makes it so that among the population of gamblers, a larger percentage have experienced good luck when starting, thus causing them to feel that beginners tend to have better luck.
No comments:
Post a Comment